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MLB trades and rumors: Impact on odds

Submitted by TSB Editor on July 28, 2010 - 1:48pm

The Angels made a big splash last week when they stole Dan Harden from the Diamondbacks. Unfortunately, he was injured in his first start for Los Angeles, taking a liner off his arm. How does the trade—and injury—impact the Angels’ odds to win the pennant and World Series?

First, let’s address the injury. It appears as though Los Angeles has dodged a significant bullet; Tuesday’s X-rays on Harden’s forearm came back negative, and he’s expected to make his regular start against Texas on Saturday. In fact, Harden pitched from 150-200 feet on Tuesday and he felt “pretty good.”

So does Harden have what it takes to lift Los Angeles to a division title (+1500 odds at Sportsbook.com), pennant (+3000 odds at SPORTSBETTING.com) or World Series title (+5000 odds at SPORTSBETTING.com)? Prying him from the Diamondbacks came much cheaper than it should have. Harden’s ERA is up this season, but he’s still striking out a batter per inning—it’s not like his stuff has dropped off. You’re also talking about a player who has been in serious Cy Young consideration over the past few years.

Many pitchers struggle when making the switch from National League to American League, but it shouldn’t faze Haren too much—he pitched extremely well in his last year in Oakland, 2007, before joining Arizona the following year. Haren went 15-9 with a 3.07 ERA for the A’s.

Will it be enough? Ultimately, no. This move simply made for a little “catch up” after Texas recently acquired Cliff Lee—the Angels still aren’t the best team in their own division, let alone the entire AL.

OTHER MLB TRADE RUMORS:

- The Cubs are looking to deal second baseman Ryan Theriot, and the Rockies are interested. “The Riot” is hitting .281 with a homer and 21 RBIs this season, but he isn’t enough to improve Colorado’s +900 NL West odds; the Rockies are eight games out of first.

- The Yankees and Red Sox are among several teams trying to get Jays reliever Scott Downs. Downs, a lefty specialist, would help bolster any bullpen—he’s held lefties to a .185 average this season. Toronto’s asking price is reportedly too high at the moment, but give whoever Downs joins a slight—slight—bump should he be moved.

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